Severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible on Thursday

A strong cold front will approach southeast Texas on Thursday. Though the front is not expected to pass through the region and off the coast until late Thursday night and early Friday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop well ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon (possibly as early as late Thursday morning). Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening could become strong to severe and could also produce locally heavy rainfall. All severe weather hazards will be in play with the primary concern being damaging winds and hail. By late Thursday night into early Friday morning, a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned cold front is expected to push through the region. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible in the heavier thunderstorms. Though widespread rainfall totals are expected to be manageable, some localized minor street flooding will be possible where the heavier amounts occur.

On Thursday ahead of the cold front, wind advisories might be needed (south winds could reach 20 to 30 mph and gusty).

Late Thursday night and Friday behind the cold front, wind advisories are likely (north winds should reach 20 to 30 mph and gusty before gradually weakening in the afternoon).  

The Thursday afternoon forecast is particularly tricky. The storms that will develop well ahead of the front on Thursday are expected to be influenced by a disturbance ahead of the front. There is uncertainty regarding the strength of the disturbance. There is also uncertainty regarding how far south showers and thunderstorms will occur. Generally, the highest risk of thunderstorms appears to be north of Interstate 10. 

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